Jay Leno arrives tomorrow (Monday) night with his new five nights a week "big tent" show.
That's what he's calling it.
Unasked, I present my prediction. (As if, of course, being unasked has ever stopped me before.)
The reason that Leno succeeded on the Tonight Show, and for that matter the same reason that Dave has succeeded where he is for all these years, is the time slot.
Period.
At 11:30 Eastern, 10:30 Central, most folks who still have the TV even turned on are at the end of their day, looking for some mindless celebrity chit chat, goofball skits, et al to make them sleepy and take the pressure off mama who, between working a nine to five AND taking care of the kids AND all the household chores, you lazy bastards, has a well deserved headache.
Years ago, Johnny Carson quipped that he was best recognized when one looked at him between their toes.
Funny. And true.
At 10PM Eastern, 9PM Central, most folks are still involved in their day/evening and it takes more than mindless celebrity chit chat, goofball skits, et al to get them to put everything else aside.
It takes something riveting and culturally relevant.
Like finding out if McDreamy and McSteamy are ever going to find out which of them is more McPopular.
Or if Randy might actually go one whole week without saying "yo...dawg..."
NBC and Jay Leno have been together a long time, so I imagine it's unlikely that the network will dump him harshly, as they would any other show that will start out hot and fade quicker than Sanford's chances of being re-elected in South Carolina.
But I'm guessing that Jay's big budget backyard playhouse won't be the cornerstone of any industry changing phenomenon.
His comedy chops, etc are a matter of opinion. And everybody is entitled to their own.
But I'm confident that the X factor in any nighttime broadcast network talk/comedy show is less about talent than it is about timing.
Or to put the finer point on it, time.
After all, look how well Jimmy Fallon is doing.
Good night, everybody!!
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